Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday's racing in Australia and USA, including the three feature races on Derby Day at Royal Randwick.
Royal Randwick Doncaster Mile (1600m)
No9 YULONG PRINCE
Trainer: Chris Waller - Jockey: B Avdulla
QUACKERJACK has been done a huge favour drawing the rail and is a certain leader with HOMESMAN and IMAGING seeking to get across from their wide draw is the way this sizzling contest should pan out in the early stages. Homesman, an 18 race winner, has Nash Rawiller in the hot seat and rates the pick of Anthony Freedman’s runners. SHARED AMBITION, on the other hand, will be ridden cold. The 4-year-old’s trainer Chris Waller has dominated the contest with six successes and throws the kitchen sink at the $1.5m race in his attempt to make it seven. While the lightly weighted Shared Ambition is the shortest-priced the claims of KOLDING, YULONG PRINCE and IMAGING are of comparable strength, while STAR OF THE SEAS rates a lively outsider if green-lighted to run. Shared Ambition is well spotted in gate 4 and proven in the soft, but he hasn’t raced since winning the Listed Randwick City Stakes over 2000m and had a ‘tick over’ trial last week. Kolding will be partnered by Hall Of Famer Hugh Bowman for the second time, the combination having shaped well in the All Star Mile. He’s in his comfort zone back in Sydney and has to run well, looking overpriced at around $14. Yulong Prince won a Group 1 overseas before shipping Down Under and improved on his second run back when chasing home Imaging in the Ajax Stakes. He should be going forward at the business end of this tough mile, and be ready to peak at just the right time. He was forced three-wide that day and will be fitter, while the fact that he’s won over 2000m has to stand him in good stead at the end of a ferociously run contest. Imaging is a Group winner in Europe over 1400m and a mile, has a lovely weight under Kerrin McEvoy and can operate from anywhere as the race develops, but will need to from his tricky gate position. BRANDENBURG has 50-year-old Glen Boss in the irons in search of a record eight success in this race. He’s a three-year-old who is in off a tempting weight but trading around $6 gives him little appeal value-wise. Ten times Group winner MELODY BELLE hit the board in the Futurity and the All Star Mile getting ready for this, but although on the cusp of peaking may find the burden of 57k against males a tall order. That’s not reflected in her price, but like Brandenburg she cuts little ice in the value market.
Prediction
1st YULONG PRINCE
2nd Imaging
3rd Kolding
4th Melody Belle
5th Homesman
6th Shared Ambition
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Royal Randwick TJ Smith Stakes (1200m)
No2 PIERATA
Trainer: Greg Hickman - Jockey: Tommy Berry
NATURE STRIP propelled to favourite after the draw for the $1.2 million sprint and is expected to lead from barrier one under James McDonald, but will find company in a sizzling speed battle from WHITE MOSS, VEGADAYS and REDZEL. Multiple winner Nature Strip dominated the Group 2 Challenge Stakes last time and his inclusion has to be good news to connections of the closers PIERATA and BIVOUAC who will look to run over the top of the leaders in the final 200m. His army of supporters will be buoyed by the fact that favourites have a near 50% strike-rate in the contest. However, Pierata ran as good as his connections hoped when beaten just two lengths into fifth at Rosehill two weeks ago, a run that should have perfectly blown away any cobwebs. The prospect of a wet track won’t bother him either, making his draw look less daunting, and Tommy Berry will look for a midfield slot early. Remembering his run against Nature Strip on a heavy track when giving him weight in the Galaxy last year makes him a big player. The Godolphin-owned Bivouac loves to get his toe in and should relish the underfoot conditions under Bowman following two excellent efforts last month when hacking up at Flemington and running a stormer in a better race at Moonee Valley. REDZEL, a two-time winner of world’s richest sprint The Everest, will try to remain handy before countering in the home straight in search of a tenth success at this track. The seven-year-old was only gunned down in the final strides in the Black Caviar and didn’t get the rub behind Nature Strip last time. Of the bigger priced runners, only the fact that he’s returning from a 134 day break on a suspect surface is against TREKKING. He’s 2 from 3 at the track, has a good draw for a horse that wants cover, went well in his trial and should be charging home at the business end.
Prediction
1st PIERATA
2nd Nature Strip
3rd Bivouac
4th Redzel
5th Trekking
6th Santa Ana Lane
Royal Randwick Australian Derby (2400m)
No4 SHERWOOD FOREST
Trainer: Tony Pike - Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
CASTELVECCHIO looked better the further he travelled in the Rosehill Guineas, a point endorsed by the quickest final 600m of the race. The Cox Plate runner-up will look to run them down late but although entitled to start favourite the odds offer no value. John Hawkes seeks a fourth Derby with the Hugh Bowman-partnered ZEBROWSKI. The trainer has adopted a patient policy with the colt, taking him through the grades and letting him fulfil his potential. It was only a month ago that Zebrowski won his maiden at Newcastle before taking a big leap in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes at Kensington in which he gave New Zealander QUICK THINKER plenty to think about. According to Hawkes that was a perfect run as his charge wants today’s longer distance. WARNING is all about stamina as he showed when landing the Victoria Derby and all three of his prep runs have been solid. Those siding with SHADOW HERO will say he was unlucky in the Rosehill Guineas in which he was a heavily bet favourite. However, he was well beaten on his only previous attempt at this distance in the Victoria Derby after stylishly landing the Spring Champion Stakes. He also impressively put to bed the Randwick Guineas and we know he likes this track. SHERWOOD FOREST won the New Zealand Derby over this trip two runs back and found the distance short of his best in the Rosehill Guineas. Back to his optimum, he will be seeing it out when some of his foes have cried enough. His pilot Kerrin McEvoy is the best long-distance jock in Australia and should have the gelding in the A1 position to attack when it matters.
Prediction
1st SHERWOOD FOREST
2nd Castelvecchio
3rd Zebrowski
4th Quick Thinker
5th Shadow Hero
6th Warning
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Royal Randwick Undercard Best Bets
Race 1: No1 - RULERSHIP
Trainer: Peter Snowden - Jockey: Nash Rawiller
A convincing winner on debut, RULERSHIP battled hard when pipped on his second start before finishing lame in a Group 3 on his latest outing. The top money earner in the field, he’s trialled well and can have the whip hand over DAMAGED, with ZEFTABROOK the undoubted value at big double figure odds
Prediction: 1-4-9
Race 2: No3 - RELOADED
Trainer: Chris Waller - Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Having shown he can handle cut when placing in the Rosehill Guineas, RELOADED has the best credentials now cutting back in trip. Hat-trick seeker GRAND PIANO is another that enjoys an easy surface after two straight wins here, while PROMOTIONS never misses the frame, and is a must for all exotics.
Prediction: 3-5-2
Race 3: No1 - BOBBING (Nap)
Trainer: Bernie Kelly - Jockey: Koby Jennings
Mud lover BOBBING is in the right place to take them out in spite of having been done no favours by the draw (17). He looked a shade unfortunate not to win the Kosciuszko when meeting traffic and charging too late. He then displayed his well being on return to lose out in a photo at Muswellbrook. His second run back record of two wins and a second from four together with his four wins and three seconds from as many starts on a wet track, not to mention that he’s three from four over this 1400m make him the best of the day.
Prediction: 1-2-6
Race 4: No3 - COLETTE
Trainer: James Cummings - Jockey: James McDonald
This looks a match between COLETTE and PARADEE with the Godolphin-owned Colette preferred. She’s limbering up for a fine hat-trick after scoring at Kembla and Newcastle, while Paradee has similar credentials following wins at Moonee Valley and Flemington. The Randwick form of NIMALEE makes her of interest and we know she handles the soft.
Prediction: 3-2-9
Race 5: No1 - MIRAGE DANCER
Trainer: Trent Busuttin/Natalie Young - Jockey: Opie Bosson
The UK form of MIRAGE DANCER hasn’t quite been replicated since he shipped Down Under but after troubling the judge on a soft track in the Tancred Stakes the son of Frankel rates a good winning chance. Last year’s Caulfield Cup third didn’t stay in the Melbourne Cup but on his best form in the countries he’s been based he has to be of interest. Fellow UK import RAHEEN HOUSE is respected for a frame finish, along with CARIF.
Prediction: 1-4-5
Race 6: No1 - MAMARAGAN
Trainer: John Thompson - Jockey: Nash Rawiller
MAMARAGAN looks bombproof from the rail and will be very hard to beat. Not many horses can win a Group 2 on debut and then run third in the Golden Slipper next time, and that when he saw the worst of the track. He has the versatility to stalk or to lead, and must now show that he handles the soft in order to add to his laurels. AIM has the ability to earn if getting the trip while KING’S LEGACY also appeals at bigger odds.
Prediction: 1-7-4
Race 10: No2 - RUBISAKI
Trainer: P Payne - Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Looking for the nap hand after his win in the Kewney at Flemington, RUBISAKI can deliver in the nightcap. He’s shown an affinity for easy conditions and trialled beautifully at Benalla. He’s in the right place to take the spoils with WAYUPINTHESKY and KIAMICHI the others to include.
Prediction: 2-6-1
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Werribee Best Bets Saturday
Race 4: No10 - MISS HARRIETTE
Trainer: Shane Nicholls - Jockey: Will Price
Racing back from the city, MISS HARRIETTE stands out, the Choisir filly having broken her maiden at Ballarat before a midfield finish in the Mornington Guineas. Doing all her best work at the business end that day, she should relish today’s drop in class.
Prediction: 10-5-15
Race 6: No3 - MUTANAASEQ
Trainer: Jamie Edwards - Jockey: Dylan Dunn
Breaking his maiden at Avoca last time might have given MUTANAASEQ the confidence he needs and a follow-up looks the order of the day. He was strong to the line over that 1860m which suggests the step up in trip will prove a boon. ARKAMUN and ZED EM rate the main threats.
Prediction: 3-4-2
Race 7: No2 - HELVETIAN
Trainer: Charles Cassar - Jockey: Dylan Dunn
With blinkers refitted and down to a more suitable trip, HELVETIAN could upset the applecart. The form from his penultimate start at Echuca has worked out well, and he’s capable of beating these if back on song with a strong jock in the plate. ADMIRAL MICHELLE needs to blitz the gate to win, while THIN GREEN LINE appeals at a price.
Prediction: 2-7-6
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Tampa Bay Downs Best Bets
Race 3: (Allowance Optional Claiming): No6 NOTACAREBUTACARD
Trainer: Michael Campbell - Jockey: Harry Hernandez
NOTACAREBUTACARD left the dollars behind when third on his latest outing here, and at this level, but that was just a second run under the tutelage of Campbell and he’d needed his first in an Optional Claimer at Hawthorne. The 5yo needs time between his races and returns for this after a near five-week break.
Prediction: 6-7-8
Race 7 (Allowance): No3 - HUNGRY KITTEN
Trainer: Claude McGaughey - Jockey: Sam Camacho
HUNGRY KITTEN can defy a near 300-day absence in the day’s feature. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy bombed out when last seen at Churchill Downs last summer but came back with excuses. She had broken her maiden at the same track in first-time blinkers and has trained well for this belated return to competitive duty. WAR ROSE is a consistent foe that is sure to menace and cannot be left out.
Prediction: 3-4-10
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