Winning Form brings you all of their best bets and tips for this Weekend's races taking place in Australia.
Saturday 19 December 2020 – Royal Randwick
Best Bet: SALLY'S DAY (Race 7)
Value Bet: KORDIA (Race 9)
SALLY'S DAY is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys. She has posted two solid last runs over 1100M when finishing second and then third last time out, just a length behind the winner. She finished strongly that day when returning from a 22 week break and the form of that race has been franked. She jumps from a handy draw two and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card. MISSION RIVER returns from a short 11 week rest and did win his only barrier trial to prove his fitness. He is seldom far off the action and although seventh in his last start over six furlongs, he was just under two lengths behind the winner. He gets a wideish gate eight, but he should turn in another honest performance here. LASHES is a 5yr old mare who jumped awkwardly and then did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight when finishing sixth last time out over five furlongs, 7.7L back from the winner and that effort is best ignored. She has her first run after a 24 week absence and two barrier trials, winning the latest. She will have to negotiate the widest draw of them all in gate twelve, but she should be involved in the finish.
HILO followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs at this track with a fourth place finish next time out over 1300M, just over a length and a half behind the winner. The form of that race has stood up well and he has finished third in a subsequent barrier trial. From gate two, he could be the one to side with here. EDISON had his consistency rewarded with a short-head win last time out over this trip. He showed plenty of courage in battling all the way down to the wire that day and despite having to deal with a wide draw eleven, he could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice. ORDER AGAIN on the other hand has cracked pole position. He returns from a 17 week break, but has had the benefit of a barrier trial. He drops back in trip after finishing fifth last time out over a mile, just over two lengths behind the victor and may do better as a result.
KORDIA returns from a 20 break, but has had two barrier trials to showcase his well-being. He finished second in his last outing over 1300M at this venue and won over this distance three runs back by some 1.3L. He gets to jump from gate two and looks to be the value bet on the program. MO'S CROWN won his penultimate start over six furlongs by almost two lengths and then tried to go from jump to wire before ending up in third place last time out over 1100M, just a neck behind the winner. He was just collared in the shadow of the post that day and may prove difficult to reel in here. BIG PARADE also won his penultimate start over six furlongs, but in his case, he put five and a half lengths between himself and the opposition that day. He then finished sixth next time out over the same trip, two and a half lengths behind the winner when returning from a 10 week rest. He will have to overcome a wide draw twelve, but he is a speedy sort who should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.
A 4yr old and a 3yr old filly could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta. MORE PROPHETS goes for her hat-trick after winning her last outing over 1100M by a head when returning from a 25 week break, but did win his penultimate start over this distance, so the step up in trip should not be an issue. Her draw three will do her no harm. ARABIAN HUSSEY has only had the four runs to date and has won two of her last three outings, both over today’s distance, the latest by some five lengths, so she clearly has some ability. Because of the late scratching, she now jumps from gate nine and should be right up there when they hit the line. BLACK DUKE stayed on well to end up in second place last time out over 1300M, just a head adrift of the victor. He has his peak run after a 9 week absence and whilst having a wideish gate seven, on the plus side, he will have 2kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice.
Sunday 20 December 2020 – Moruya
Best Bet: ROMEO VELLA (Race 5)
Value Bet: LOOK ONLY (Race 6)
NUREMBURG CASTLE has posted one second and two third place finishes from three starts since returning from a 23 week break and looked a possible winner before being run out of it late to end up second last time out over six furlongs, just a short head behind the winner. He gets gate six and looks to be the one to side with here. KATTEGAT made good late progress when finishing third last time out over six furlongs, just under a length and a half back from the winner when returning from a 19 week rest. He faces a wide gate eleven, but he is likely to be doing his best work over the closing stages of the contest. CLEARLY REGAL jumped awkwardly, but then recovered to finish well and although recorded as eighth last time out over six furlongs, he was just three and a half lengths adrift of the victor. He will have to negotiate a wide gate sixteen, but is likely to be dropped out of it early and then start picking off the frontrunners over the latter stages.
ROMEO VELLA hit the front as he entered the home straight and then strode away from the opposition to put three and a half lengths between himself and the chasing pack to record an emphatic victory last time out over seven furlongs. He jumps from a handy draw five and is taken to be the best bet on the day’s card. Two 4yr old fillies could chase the top choice home. FREAKY FRECKLES did not get the clearest of passages in the home straight before finishing second in her last outing over seven furlongs, 3.4L off the winner. She faces a wide draw eleven, but with better luck in running today, she could threaten the top pick. NOBLE BELLE stayed on well when fifth last time out over six furlongs, nearly three and a half lengths back from the winner when returning from a 19 week break. She has a kinder draw six and will have 3kgs taken off her back thanks to his claiming apprentice to enhance his prospects of victory.
LOOK ONLY is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but although seventh last time out over 1100M, 2.8L behind the winner, she had nothing go her way that day. She overraced early and then had to be steadied at the 800M mark before being denied a clear run in the home straight. She jumps from gate two and should be right up there when they hit the line. MAJOR TIME followed up his penultimate run victory over five furlongs with a seventh place finish next time out over 1100M, two lengths behind the winner. The form of that race has been franked and despite being drawn in gate ten, the gelding should be respected in this line-up. ELTHAM PALACE is another 4yr old filly in the race and who returns from a 13 week rest without having had the benefit of a barrier trial, so her fitness will have to be taken on trust. She stayed on when finishing three and a half lengths back from the winner in her last outing over this c&d. from draw three, she should be included in all bets.
SCARLEO hit the front as the field entered the straight and was only run out of it late when third last time out over seven furlongs, just a length behind the winner. On that performance, the drop in distance will be to his liking. He has pulled gate five and should be right up there in the firing line. ROCKAROSA is a 4yr old filly taking on males and returns from a 25 week break and no barrier trial. She finished fifth in her last outing over seven furlongs before that rest, four lengths behind the winner, but the form of that race has stood up well. She will have to deal with a wide draw sixteen, but she finished well in her last start and should be mowing down the frontrunner in the dash down to the wire. HAY BALE on the other hand has cracked pole position. He finished sixth in his last outing over seven furlongs, just under two lengths back from the winner. He has his peak run here after returning from a 10 week absence and should be involved in the finish.
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