Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday's racing coming your way from Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park.
Gulfstream Park Best Bets Saturday
Race 3 – 19:45 – Claiming No4: OR’EFFICE
Trainer: Mark Hennig - Jockey: Luis Saez
Yet to finish out of the money,
OR’EFFICE will be short as he tries to put behind him two recent near-misses with Saez back in the plate. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has the beating of his six rivals if able to even repeat the level of form he showed last time, with Reg Tag the clear second-best on fourth run back for top connections. An unknown quantity is the Tapit colt Newsworthy, for whom a market check is recommended.
Prediction: 4-3-7
Race 7 – 21:48 - Claiming No3: POSITIVE PHIL
Trainer: Mike Maker - Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
On third start for his in form handler, POSITIVE PHIL can gain a first success since his debut win 18 months ago. The selection has done the majority of his subsequent racing here and placed on both outings for Maker, giving best to Crypto Gold last time. The blinkered Lookin At Roses has earned in all four starts since his move from New York and has to be taken seriously, while Handsome Lil Devil is going to be right in the mix if continuing his race to race improvement.
Prediction: 3-6-1
Race 8 – 21:48 – Allowance Optional Claiming No2 OVERDELIVER
Trainer: Saffie Joseph - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
In his short time in Florida, OVERDELIVER has converted on two of his three starts and finished second in the other. He landed some good bets in an allowance in late January, and when stepping up the class ladder found only Travelling Midas his superior at the end of March. The chestnut should enjoy moving back up to a mile under a rider who hasn’t partnered him for a while. Just For One Day has a trip question mark to answer, stretching out from five furlongs to a mile after a win here at the minimum, while Kid Bourbon is a frequent earner that often attracts support. He’s gone close a couple of times since breaking his maiden and is a definite player.
Prediction: 2-1-3
Race 9 – 22:53 – Stakes No2: HIGHLAND GLORY
Trainer: Barclay Tagg - Jockey: Luis Saez
In order to overcome the progressive Envoutante, HIGHLAND GLORY needs to continue the progression displayed in an unbeaten year at Gulfstream. Envoutante was well backed when breaking her maiden and threatens to start short, but the selection represents value to topple her or at least be in the frame as she is proven at this level and also a slick operator on the track. Mimina’s Team will get plenty of assistance from the saddle as another to enter calculations now that she’s broken her maiden.
Prediction: 2-1-3
Race 10 – 23:25 – Stakes No3: NETWORK EFFECT
Trainer: Chad Brown - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
The Big Drama Stakes gives the talented NETWORK EFFECT the chance to show what he can do on his second start here and first at this level. The good level of form he showed at Aqueduct has been maintained, while his second to Wind Of Change at the end of March firmly suggests he’s going forward. He Hate Me has also done well since his arrival in FLA and goes well for Saez, but Last Judgement needs to bounce back from a heavy defeat last time.
Prediction: 3-6-2
Oaklawn Park Undercard
Race 6 – 21:44 – Maiden Special Weight No14: DIVINE ARMOR
Trainer: John Sadler - Jockey: Joel Rosario
Rosario is reunited with
DIVINE ARMOR, who has a good chance of ending a frustrating run of narrow defeats on his debut at this track. The colt returns from a 70-day break and stretches out to nine furlongs with an official rating that on paper gives him a fair amount in hand. However, first-time blinkers could make the difference to Friar’s Road, who shaped promisingly on return at Santa Anita and can threaten the main pick. Another name to conjure with is Hunt The Front, who brings solid form from New York to the table and will be fitter for a recent earning run.
Prediction: 14-4-5
Race 7 – 22:16 – Allowance Optional Claiming No8: GAMINE
Trainer: Bob Baffert - Jockey: Martin Garcia
GAMINE hardly broke sweat in breaking her maiden on debut at Santa Anita. The daughter of Into Mischief is the least experienced runner in the 14-strong field but from her middle post gives her jockey options. Speech has menaced on all four of her career starts and now gets Javier Castellano to make her the clear danger to the main pick. Ain’t No Elmers took out an allowance at Fair Grounds six weeks ago, but could be compromised by a wide post.
Prediction: 8-10-13
Race 9 - 23:19 – Allowance Optional Claiming No7: ROTATION
Trainer: Steve Asmussen - Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr
Super Derby winner
ROTATION finished second on his return from six months off here in March and that should have blown away any cobwebs to make the grey a solid entity in an admittedly open contest. He has an upwardly profile to take into battle and can outpoint Popular Kid, who takes a first look at Oaklawn since shipping from Santa Anita and can go well on debut for his new trainer. Fearless had a two race unbeaten record at Gulfstream ended when finishing fifth in the New Orleans Classic at Fair Grounds and could easily bounce back.
Prediction: 7-1-3
Race 10 – 23:54 No11: RUSHIE
Trainer: Mike McCarthy - Jockey: Joel Rosario
Here’s a chance to get a line onto 11th race favourite Charlatan, with RUSHIE bidding to regain the winning thread after a defeat by the latter in an $35k AOC at Santa Anita. The son of Liam’s Map had no chance against the Kentucky Derby prospect but now finds himself in the right company to regroup. He can expect pressure from the widest-drawn Kaddish who is a beautifully-bred son of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie and chasing a hat-trick. Ginobili hunted up Nadal in the Grade 2 San Vicente before disappointing here last month. If bouncing back he would give an indirect boost to his conqueror who tackles the second leg of the Arkansas Derby later on.
Prediction: 11-2-14
TV viewers get a spectacular ‘two for the price of one’ when in an unprecedented step the Arkansas Derby will be run in two divisions at Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, on Saturday 2nd May 2020.
Oaklawn officials have wisely expanded the highlight of its season in order to let as many horses as possible gain points for the Kentucky Derby, postponed until September 5th 2020, owing to the Corona 19 epidemic. A total of 22 horses were entered in the mile and an eighth contest and there will now be two Derbys, the first division pitching Stakes debutant
CHARLATAN against Grade 1 winner BASIN as part of an 11-horse field, while the more competitive second division features a tantalising matchup between champion
STORM THE COURT, Rebel Stakes winner
NADAL, Louisiana Derby winner
WELLS BAYOU, Tampa Bay Derby winner
KING GUILLERMO and the Southwest Stakes winner
SILVER PROSPECTOR. Ten are due to contest this race following the defection of Fast Enough.
Both races carry the full 170 points for the Kentucky Derby and the first four home will earn points sliding down from 100 to 40, 20 and 10.
Race 11 – 00:29 – ARKANSAS DERBY Gr 1 (Div I) - $ 500,000
A strong favourite for this and rightly so is the exciting
CHARLATAN, who looked something out of the ordinary with scintillating wins in his maiden and an allowance at Santa Anita in which he earned respective Beyer figures of 105 and 106. Bob Baffert finds his Speightstown colt in the softer division of the day’s feature, in which he appears to have everything in his favour. He’s drawn the rail and is according to his trainer, set for a jump and run mission with pressure pinned on jockey Martin Garcia not to go too fast. There has inevitably been comparison between Charlatan and Justify, winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, as both were unraced as juveniles, won a sprint on debut and then a two-turn allowance before their stakes debut. According to Baffert, Charlton is a smaller version of Justify.
Trainer Blaine Wright removes the blinkers on his colt
ANNEAU D’OR sported in a division of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in mid-February. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up ran flat and came back with no valid excuse, and needs to bounce back.
Todd Pletcher fields Florida Derby fourth
GOUVERNEUR MORRIS and expects him to improve on his fourth in the Florida Derby, while one that should get onto the board is
BASIN, whose third to Charlatan’s barn mate Nadal in the Rebel and fourth in the Oaklawn Stakes around two turns, are good enough to see him contend today and possibly give most trouble to the Morning Line 1-1 favourite.
Prediction: 1-11-4-8-9
Race 13 – 01:43 – ARKANSAS DERBY Gr1 (Div II) - $500,000
Bob Baffert is fully aware that his unbeaten colt
NADAL will not get such a comfortable time of things as when landing the Rebel on a sloppy track here, over a slightly shorter trip. While having the rail that day and making all, he has the speedy
KING GUILLERMO inside him on Saturday, while
WELLS BAYOU will most likely try to lead from his outside draw. However, Baffert has asked three race winner
NADAL to sit off horses in recent workouts at Santa Anita, giving him the ability to adjust.
King Guillermo boasts the highest Beyer figure in the contest of 99, earned for his five lengths triumph in the Tampa Bay Derby, while Wells Bayou wired the Louisiana Derby under Florentine’s Geroux, over a distance 110 yards longer than he’ll cover today. Trainer Brad Cox is worried about the wide post and concedes that the only way for his colt to go is forward and try for the lead.
Storm The Court chased home Authentic and Honor A.P. in the San Felipe while
FARMINGTON ROAD and
TAISHAN were second and third in the Oaklawn Stakes on April 11. Todd Pletcher isn’t worried about the relatively quick turnaround for Farmington Road who improved for the fitting of blinkers and will sit off the pace, while Richard Baltas is mindful that Taishan will not likely make an early move as was the case at Santa Anita.
Silver Prospector jumps into the mix courtesy of his defeat of Wells Bayou in the Southwest back in February, but was then put in his place in the Rebel.
While there’s nothing to suggest
NADAL is going to be another American Pharoah, he can under new tactics, follow in the hoof prints of that Triple Crown hero and take this en route to Churchill Downs in the fall. His wins in the Rebel and Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes do not guarantee he will stay, but Baffert is a master at getting the best out of what he’s got, and I think Nadal has the wherewithal to hold the likely late surge of value play Farmington Road.
Prediction: 5-10-4-9-3
Replay of the 2015 Arkansas Derby, Grade 1 – American Pharaoh:
from Hollywoodbets Sports Blog https://ift.tt/35m0KH3
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