Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Saturday's racing coming your way from Sha Tin (including video analysis), Gulfstream Park, and Tampa Bay Downs.
Sha Tin Best Bets
Race 1: No1 - EXPONENTIAL
Trainer: Doug Whyte - Jockey: Chad Schofield
Top weight might not stop the lightly-raced
EXPONENTIAL from taking out the opener. He has a plum draw and figures to improve on a cracking run in first-time blinkers.
HARD PROMISE last delivered more than a year back, but all bad runs are there to be ended and a good showing behind President’s Choice last time indicates his time is near.
SHINING ON is better than recent form figures indicate, and could also find something under Moreira.
Prediction: 1-2-12
Race 2: No7 - LONDON LUCKYSTAR
Trainer: David Ferraris - Jockey: Antoine Hamelin
The bang in form Hamelin can again illustrate his skills by guiding home
LONDON LUCKYSTAR. The selection raised his game when returning to this course for his latest start, chasing home Foodie Princess. It was a big improvement on previous efforts this year.
PING HAI TREASURE can only improve on what he showed when reappearing here last month. He finished just out of the money but may require another race to make him iron fit.
CLEAR CHOICE has claims to notch a second win of 2020 with Purton up. He’s run well in two races since a comeback win, and can’t be safely ignored.
Prediction: 7-1-4
Race 3: No6 - ILUVATAAR
Trainer: John Size - Jockey: Joao Moreira
The betting will indicate what’s what as far as the inexperienced horses are concerned and if there’s money for
ILUVATAAR that will suffice for me. He’s shown ability in his trials and is in the right hands to do well here.
GENERAL TRUMP looked a tad unlucky when blocked in his run on last start and could come out as the best of the experienced runners. But
DECISIVE TWELVE hasn’t done much wrong with two placings from as many starts, and if able to overcome a tricky gate can have a big say.
Prediction: 6-2-10
Race 4: No2 - JOY MASTER
Trainer: Caspar Fownes - Jockey: Joao Moreira
Granted a clean break from his wide gate,
JOY MASTER can give plenty to think about. He’s managed just one success in 26 starts on turf but finished in the money the other day. Moreira taking over from Purton is not going to make much difference and the latter’s move to
RED BRICK FIGHTER could yield a dividend. The five-year-old has taken a while to acclimatise here but nevertheless put in some promising placed efforts. One that could help ramp up the exotic dividends is
MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE.
Prediction: 2-9-11
Race 5: No4 - CHEERFUL STAR
Trainer: Frankie Lor - Jockey: Antoine Hamelin
CHEERFUL STAR has run into some useful types since his win here early in the New Year. He’s consistently hovered around another delivery and has a good draw with Antoine Hamelin aboard for the first time. He should also provide some value, as the likes of recent winners
LEADING FORTUNE and
MCMUNIGAL are sure to attract a good slice of the betting handle.
CALIFORNIA LEGEND is another worth a market check and can get into it.
Prediction: 4-9-6
Race 6: No4 - THIS ONE’S FOR YOU
Trainer: Francis Lui - Jockey: Joao Moreira
JADE FORTUNE is going to attract a good amount of the handle on this contest and with man in form Purton in charge looks sure to go well. However,
THIS ONE’S FOR YOU has done nothing wrong in five starts since scoring on his first outing of the year in early January and has the services of Moreira. His unflinching consistency could make the difference in what looks sure to be a tight finish. The lightly-raced
SO WE JOY is one to monitor for a market move, having got going late last time when third to True Legend.
Prediction: 4-2-6
Race 7: No1 - FANTASY
Trainer: Danny Shum - Jockey: Joao Moreira
While there are a couple of unexposed dangers lurking, the logical play is to stay with
FANTASY in his hat-trick bid. He’s giving away upwards of 6lb to his foes but may have the extra improvement in him to win again.
RELENTLESS ME will be dangerous enjoying the claim of his apprentice rider Jerry Chau, and is also a horse in form, having won well on his return from a break. He gets the chance to pay a compliment to War Room, my selection for Race 10. Any support for
CALIFORNIA LEVEE would interest me, and this unexposed individual is worth putting in.
Prediction: 1-4-7
Race 8: No5 - HONG KONG WIN
Trainer: John Size - Jockey: Joao Moreira
Moreira boasts a win and a second the twice he’s ridden
HONG KONG WIN this year and looks to have one of his best chances on the blinkered five-year-old. The combination might not be in the best part of the gate, but this looks a race for the taking if recent efforts are repeated.
MULTIMILLION has delivered on three occasions with Karis Teetan in the irons and on fourth run back should be at peak fitness to put in an earning run. But
TEAM SPIRIT looked to have found some form when making Fantasy fight for the spoils last month. He was a 40-1 shot that day and gets the chance to show it was no fluke.
Prediction: 5-7-13
Race 9: No4 - DECRYPT
Trainer: Frankie Lor - Jockey: Zac Purton
DECRYPT was good enough to finish third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas around this time last year and signalled with a strong finish last time that he’s ready to post a first success in Hong Kong.
BEAUTY LEGACY has a good draw and can go well if his pilot can get him galloping in control. Worryingly, the top weight often squanders his chance by pulling.
KINGS SHIELD figures to get into it after a couple of placed efforts, but the main threat to the selection is
BALLISTIC KING, lightly-weighted after a win that should have done wonders for his confidence.
Race 10: No12 - WAR ROOM
Trainer: David Hall - Jockey: K H Chan
There’s sure to be a chunk of money for
FARHH ABOVE even though the colt needs to ride his luck in the home straight, and should he find trouble
WAR ROOM can be the one to take advantage. On first run for his trainer, the six-year-old ran a cracker from a tricky draw to chase home Relentless Me, and while he’ll need similar from his wide gate he will be doing his best work at the finish. Also looking to overcome a high number in the gate is
RIGHT CHOICE who looked on the way back when second last time.
Prediction: 12-10-4
Gulfstream Park Best Bets
Race 1 (Maiden Claiming): No2 - MAYITO
Trainer: Saffie Joseph - Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Although proving costly to follow in a couple of these over course and distance, this represents another fine chance for
MAYITO to put one on the board and he should prove hard to beat. The gelded son of Declaration Of War is yet to finish out of the first four in five starts, and from his excellent post one off the rail is in pole position to assert. If Traffic Trouble doesn’t live up to his name from a dicey spot in the middle of the gate he could prove troublesome under Ortiz, while Jack Beanstalk rarely fails to trouble the judge, and has to go in.
Prediction: 2-9-5
Race 3: No12 - CAT LADY
Trainer: Todd Pletcher - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
The action should unfold from a bunch of horses posted wide, and while Flashing Red and Madame Moon take the eye as potential earners the preference is to give
CAT LADY another chance. She ran well in her first two starts here only to bomb out when fully expected to deliver in the race won by Mimina’s Team. She has Ortiz back in the plate and takes plenty of confidence to post in her attempt to bounce back. Flashing Red placed on her first run at this track after a couple of earning runs at Tampa and looks dangerous. Madame Moon is inching towards a first win but was turned over at odds-on in first-time blinkers, leaving her with a point to prove.
Prediction: 12-15-13
Race 7 (Allowance): No2 - AFFICIONADO
Trainer: Patrick Biancone - Jockey: Joe Bravo
If
AFFICIONADO can transfer her smart form from Jean-Claude Rouget in France to the Florida turf, she could get her new career off to the perfect start. She’s certainly with the right man in Biancone to add to the successes she posted at Croan and Deauville last summer. Compensate is the one feared most, fresh off a win and a near-miss over this track and trip, and a filly who hasn’t yet put in a bad one in six career starts. Foolish Humour is open to progression from a pleasing first run back and has an eye-catching jockey booking in the shape of Ortiz.
Prediction: 2-10-5
Race 9 (Sunshine Forever Stakes): No9 - SOCIAL PARANOIA
Trainer: Todd Pletcher - Jockey: Edgard Zayas
The day’s feature can go to the upwardly mobile
SOCIAL PARANOIA, who shaped as a colt to follow when beginning the campaign in the same winning form he signed off last season. That came in a Class 1 over this course and distance and gives the son of a similar profile to barn mate Halladay, who himself took out an allowance optional claimer last month to make it two wins from three tries since shipping from New York. Just Whistle looked to appreciate the addition of blinkers when second on second run back over a slightly longer trip here in late March. The entire son of Pioneer of the Nile should have been ripened by that, and figures as a genuine threat to the Pletcher pair.
Prediction: 9-6-1
Race 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming): No6 - BATTLE OF BLENHEIM
Trainer: Mike Maker - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
With a field of 16 set to go to post, tactical advantage should count for plenty, and
BATTLE OF BLENHEIM has a perfect position in the gate to give his pilot options. Since his claiming win here before Christmas he hasn’t put a foot wrong, following-up over a tad further in the early New Year before giving Conviction Trade plenty to think about at today’s level, when heavily bet. With that solid form and knowledge of the terrain, he gets the vote over Gray’s Fable, who impressed in breaking his maiden here last month and can do better. At longer odds Shootin The Breeze will figure if building on his earning run back in an allowance.
Prediction: 6-8-11
Tampa Bay Downs Best Bets
Race 1 (Claiming): No10 - AMERICANO
Trainer: Gerald Bennett - Jockey: Ademar Santos
There’s been plenty of support for
AMERICANO in his last four starts for Bennett, and the grey son of Tiznow is overdue. From his wide post, he has a potential danger close inside him in the form of Seventysevenwillow, who will be fitter and sharper for his run off a break here last month. However, the veteran Betweenhereandcool could also muster a challenge, as he raised his game on debut at this track to signal he may have another tune in him.
Prediction: 10-8-2
Race 7 (Maiden Special Weight): No4 - DARK WEB
Trainer: Ian Wilkes - Jockey: Antonio Gallardo
With the majority of the field either out of form or with little experience,
DARK WEB has been handed an invitation to build on the decent stats he’s brought here from Gulfstream. He returned from a two-month break to finish third over six and a half furlongs and will probably appreciate cutting back a furlong here. Evidence ran into the money in spite of being unwanted in the betting last time and has scope to improve, while Expensive Style has elements in his profile that if repeated would put him firmly into the mix, and he rates the main threat.
Prediction: 4-3-2
Race 8 (Starter Allowance): No2 - ON A SPREE
Trainer: Juan Arriagada - Jockey: Raul Mena
ON A SPREE has proved a captain of industry since joining this barn off the claim. He’s won twice and finished second in his other two starts and retains Mena who won on him last time. Exchequer was far from disgraced in an allowance last month and figures to offer the best value in the race. He rarely fails to make an impression. Fast Fire has done well for this barn and looked good value for his success in a handicap in late March. He’s formed a good rapport with jockey Gallardo, who's been striking at a near 45% rate in the last couple of weeks.
Prediction: 2-7-9
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