Neil Morrice brings us all of his best bets and tips for Friday's racing coming your way from Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs.
Gulfstream Park Best Bets
Race 2 (Starter Optional Claiming): No3 - TAKE CHARGE DUDE
Trainer: Saffie Joseph - Jockey: Luis Saez
With four successes in his last nine starts and representing top connections, TAKE CHARGE DUDE is the one to beat in what is sure to become a tactical battle. Since being claimed out of the Pletcher barn he’s run a dozen times in the ensuing year and frequently delivers when the money’s down. However, he was turned over by Travy Boy as a 5-6 shot on his latest outing a month ago and needs to recoup those losses. Travy Boy is doing well for his new trainer, but on revised terms may struggle to confirm the form, as the betting suggested it was a surprise win. Killa Dee also reopposes, having finished third when bidding to complete a hat-trick that day, and has to go in.
Prediction: 3-6-4
Race 3: No5 - TRULY
Trainer: Michael Lerman - Jockey: Joe Bravo
With six frame finishes in as many starts since joining this barn, TRULY has become a tad frustrating. For the first time, she started favourite for her run back from a break a month ago, but couldn’t get past Mixteca. However, she should offer up some value taking on Cherokee Sound, who also went close last time and has top rider Saez doing the steering for the first time. Gauzy brings decent Laurel form to the table on her return from an 89-day break for a new trainer, while there could be some value about Madame Moon, who changed barns after being rolled at odds-on in first-time blinkers at the end of March.
Prediction: 5-8-3
Race 4 (Maiden Special Weight): No2 - UNCLE GEORGE
Trainer: Christophe Clement - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
With question marks over the strength of the form on offer, it could be worth chancing the impeccably-bred UNCLE GEORGE on debut. The $310,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga purchase must overcome greenness but from a good post and with Ortiz up, has plenty going for him. Charliecando ran well on his first outing for a new barn at Tampa but perhaps Sagamore Mischief and Caribbean Gold hold stronger claims. Under veteran pilot Prado, Sagamore Mischief has a big chance if recapturing his best form from last year, while Caribbean Gold has earned on both career starts, and holds scope for improvement.
Prediction: 2-6-10
Race 10 (Stakes): No3 - TONALIST’S SHAPE
Trainer: Saffie Joseph - Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
After her impressive four-race unbeaten sequence TONALIST’S SHAPE went off a 7-4 favourite for the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She failed to menace behind Swiss Skydiver, but on reflection might have been reaching for the skies sooner than ideal. By virtue of her previous successes, she’s entitled to get back to winning ways on what is a more straightforward assignment with Ortiz back in the irons. That said, there will be plenty of cash moving in the direction of Up In Smoke who has herself racked-up a three-race unbeaten record under Ortiz, John Velazquez and Saez, the latter again taking the reins today. And if there were to be an upset, Pleasant Orb may be the one to provide it as she’s looked good on both starts for Barclay Tagg, winning well last time.
Prediction: 3-5-2
Tampa Bay Downs Best Bets
Race 4 (Maiden Claiming): No6 - ESTILO PELIGROSO
Trainer: Maria Bowersock - Jockey: Ronald Allen Jr
After two close calls over the track and trip, ESTILO PELIGROSO holds strong claims to go one better. The gelded son of Quality Road has been unwanted in the market on both those occasions but figures as a genuine contender for favouritism in this. One that could show improvement on just a third career start and second run here is POSITIVE IMPACT, whose midfield finish on debut for Eoin Harty begs to be stepped up on. City Guy reacted positively to blinkers to get into the money on latest start and could contend if building on that, his best run so far.
Prediction: 6-1-8
Race 6 (Maiden Claiming): No7 - LAKE PARIMA
Trainer: Christophe Clement - Jockey: Angel Suarez
There’s plenty to like about LAKE PARIMA who has a good post in the middle of the field with a couple of worthy and more experienced opponents on either side of her. This is only a fourth career start for the selection but her recent earning effort over track and trip suggests she’s going to get better. Against that Stoney’s Monkey and Tiz Her Way could give her good company for much of the trip. The former raised her game to go close on a sloppy track here when unconsidered in the betting market. She’s not guaranteed to reproduce the form, leaving Tiz Her Way as a more likely threat. The Tizway filly has threatened in her last three outings here and has to be taken seriously.
Prediction: 7-8-6
Race 7 (Claiming): No7 - MISTER STORM
Trainer: Jose Delgado - Jockey: Raul Mena
Since switching barns and track, MISTER STORM has looked like a horse getting ready to deliver and he should play a big part in the outcome against mainly out of form foes. His jockey has tactical options breaking from a central gate, and the combination are probably in a better spot than Dapper Man, who brings decent Laurel form to the table on his first start here. Also drawn wide is Actspectation whose starting prices have ranged between 33-1 and 10-1 on four starts for his trainer. He knows how to outperform the book, but is unlikely to go off at such an elevated double-figure price this time.
Prediction: 7-13-12
Race 9 (Claiming): No3 - FEDERALE
Trainer: Dale Bennett - Jockey: Ademar Santos
FEDERALE landed some good bets and was backed as if defeat was out of the question when breaking his maiden in first-time blinkers over course and distance last month. That was a second earning run in as many starts for his trainer, and if built upon should make him the one to beat from a good past three off the fence. The grey Fog Warning has also been lighting up the board since a barn move in February which suggests his time to deliver is near at hand. Uncle Kevin looks a stronger threat however, looking to back up a first win here last month on what is only his fourth career start.
Prediction: 3-11-8
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