The PGA Tour heads to the West Coast of the USA for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | 7 - 10 February | Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill
This event was originally known as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur and was first staged way back in 1937. This year’s event will have particular significance as the hallowed Pebble Beach course plays host to the US Open for the sixth time this year. Pebble Beach- usually a picture-book setting- will look more nightmarish with the deluge which has afflicted California in recent times. So expect wet and windy conditions that could almost appear links-esque. There is also the added gloss- and distraction- of the celebrities in attendance for the Pro-Am.
The event will be played over three courses for the opening days, with the top 60 players to play Pebble Beach on Sunday. The courses are played in rotation over the first three days. Monterey is generally considered the easiest course with greens that are almost double the size of Pebble Beach. The tree-lined Spyglass Hill is considered the toughest and could be detrimental to players if drawn in windy conditions. And there’s little to be said about one of America’s most iconic sporting venues: Pebble Beach. Host of the US Open five times and the PGA Championship once, Pebble Beach is notorious for its minuscule greens which can prove devilish in tough conditions.
Dustin Johnson understandably leads the markets following his imperious performance in Saudi Arabia last week. He is also a two-time winner and two-time runner-up in this event. Big hitters customarily do well here, so the likes of Tony Finau and Cameron Champ could be in business this week. Elsewhere the likes of Jordan Spieth and Jason Day feature while Tommy Fleetwood may find the wet coastal conditions to his liking. This is a slight risk considering that only two overseas players have won this event in fifty years.
Past Winners
2018: Ted Potter Jr (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
2016: Vaughan Taylor (-17)
2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)
2014: Jimmy Walker (-11)
To Win Outright:
Dustin Johnson 11/2 | Jason Day 9/1 | Jordan Spieth 20/1 | Matt Kuchar 20/1 | Tony Finau 22/1
Value Bets
Jimmy Walker- To Win 100/1
This looks like amazing value to me, clearly prompted by quite poor recent form for the 106 PGA Championship winner. Since being diagnosed with Lymes disease, Walker has battled through poor form. But Walker is an absolute demon on the Californian coast. He has four top 10’s in 12 starts at Torrey Pines. He also has five top 10’s in eleven starts at Pebble Beach. Five of those top 10’s have come in the last eight years here. He did enjoy a third-round 66 at TPC Scottsdale last week, which should bode well for him entering this event. And at 100/1 he looks a brilliant leftfield option.
Patrick Cantlay- To Win 25/1
Cantlay is born and raised in California, which has seemed a strong barometer for success here before. He also has issues with pace of play, which should actually make him well suited to a drag-along Pro-Am such as this. He may have missed the cut at Torrey Farms, but four top 10’s in a row prior to that should dissuade one from judging him too harshly. It’s always easier to discount a poor performance from supremely metronomic players. Additionally, his two missed cuts since returning to the PGA Tour have been followed by top 10 finishes, indicating his mental toughness. He had a top 10 her back in 2013, during the embryonic stages of his career.
The Man to Beat- Tommy Fleetwood- To Win 25/1
As I mentioned earlier, Fleetwood should revel in the windy, wet conditions expected this weekend, which should essentially render this a links test. Fleetwood is playing his first event in the US since a tie for 11th at the Tour Championships. Since then he has four top 10’s and three other top 20’s. While this is his debut here, he is twice a runner-up at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship- which is also a pro-am played over three courses: Carnoustie, Kingsbarnes and St Andrews. Fleetwood looks a big long at 25/1 and looks extremely appealing to me.
Written by Damien Kayat for Hollywoodbets.
from Hollywoodbets Sports Blog http://bit.ly/2D7Vjh2
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